The NFL is a league filled with the best minds in football. Front-office personnel in every corner of the country make the decisions that shape the league, the legacies of players and coaches, and the distribution of millions of dollars. Yet, year after year, the smartest people in professional football show just how stupid they can be.
The NFL has never been a league of cutting-edge ideas. Only recently have some of the league’s less forward-thinking franchises begun to join the 21st century, thanks to the success found by coaches like Sean McVay and players like Patrick Mahomes.
Every spring, however, general managers and coaches across the league stake their futures on raw quarterback prospects with big arms and … not much else.
Last year, the Buffalo Bills traded a first- and two second-round picks to Tampa Bay for the right to draft Wyoming’s Josh Allen. At 6'5", Allen was lauded for his arm strength and prototypical size. The rookie started 12 games last year, completing 52.8 percent of his passes while throwing 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Buffalo knew better. Allen never completed more than 60 percent of his passes in a season. Ever. Not high school, not college, and not during the preseason of his rookie campaign. Allen’s preparation, decision-making and accuracy were criticized heading into last year’s draft, yet the Bills could not resist moving up for Allen.
Allen is no anomaly. GMs around the league drafted the likes of Allen, DeShone Kizer, Blake Bortles and Paxton Lynch despite numerous red flags. Prototypical size and elite arm talent seduce GMs into making poor decisions year after year while the smartest teams in the league pass them by at warp speed.
John Elway, who drafted Lynch in 2016, is widely expected to spend another top-10 pick on a tall quarterback with a big arm. Missouri’s Drew Lock, who I have rated as a second-round prospect, is heavily rumored to go to Denver at no. 10 overall. Lock would compete for the starting job with Joe Flacco, another tall quarterback with a big arm.
Elway’s obsession with tall quarterbacks has become a punchline, but he’s far from the only GM of his ilk. Two other franchises will talk themselves into Duke’s Daniel Jones and Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins, a pair of quarterbacks with as many glaring holes as plus attributes. Jones hung out around the Manning family, which is apparently enough to shoot up draft boards. Some experts suggest Jones could be taken in the top 10. Haskins, on the other hand, is an inexperienced player who is most effective when opposing defenses aren’t hassling him.
Elway, and other decision-makers like him, are a symptom of the NFL in 2019. Teams have always coveted potential franchise quarterbacks. Only recently have franchises concluded that a successful quarterback on a rookie contract is one of the best team-building strategies available. Those two factors create a perfect storm for the league’s have-not’s to take risky swings at joining the elite group of have’s.
Drafting Drew Lock, Daniel Jones or Dwayne Haskins early is a bad decision. Expect all three to be off the board by the time the first round concludes Thursday night.
